Lithuania scored the most points (110) ever against an NBA/USA team. And this is the first time the USA scored 100 points and lost as well.
That's very interesting fact. We scored more than that ridiculously stacked 2004 Lithuanian national team. Lithuania in those Olympics was by far the best offensive team dropping 93,8 points and the second was USA with only 88,1ppg and third Spain with 84. For these times LTU NT was monstrous team offensively. Now we can see that we have 8 teams in WC that scoring at least 90ppg. And that's not only because of opponents. Last Eurobasket was also highest scoring tournament ever and some teams took historically most shot attempts per game. So basketball moving towards increasing the pace and taking more shots. The fact that LTU is scoring 96.4ppg is pretty mind blowing and Serbia, USA scores 100ppg.
SS, now you're shitting your pans too much. Serbia is till treated a slight favorite and actually they are known to be bigger chokers than Lithuanians. They choked 2 times in recent tournaments against inferior teams (and already choked against Italy in this tournament which may be good for them, but it also show their usual vulnerability). That doesn't mean they will choke this time and I believe they play with lesser pressure with so many absences which might help them mentally, but so are we and that's the equal start from this point of view.
Bogdanovic might be scarier than Edwards cause he's better decision maker and makes others better, but Edwards just dropped 35pts and we survived so I'm not afraid of any individuals left, maybe aside Doncic and SGA. What makes me positive is that Lithuania never panic in this tournament. When Greeks had their lead we were getting back, patiently. When Americans had their huge spurts we bounced back and played our BB again. This team showed resilience.
Another thing. Serbia had worse opponents so far. PUR, ITA, SSD < MNT, GRE, USA
Roster wise I think it's more or less 50/50. Lithuania has better combination of centers, specially if JV plays his A game which he seems to be getting his shot together, and we have the best PG on the court. Jovic can dish the ball, but he's not on the level of Jokubaitis overall. Serbia jas an advantage at SG position with Bogdanovic, Guduric, Marinkovic Avramovic (wing position let's say). But our players there with Iggy, Kuzminskas, Dimsa (hope the latter will play just as against USA, he's getting there) also very effective there. In my opinion the key of the game again might be Sedekerskis. When Serbia lost Lucic and Kalinic, they don't have such type of player as Sedekerskis. We need another big game from him grabbing big rebounds, being physical and athletic under the boards in transition. Serbia here might have a huge boost offensively at 4 from Nikola Jovic and Pertusev, but Jovic has been cold in 2 recent games which shows that he's still inconsistent. It can go wither way. In my opinion we should first of all win physical battle, JV and Sedekerskis should set a tone and I hope that old Stefan Jovic won't be able to contain Jokubaitis. We badly need Jokubaitis operating at 100% in this game which makes our offense transendant and hardly containable. If Jokubaitis is not aggressive, our offense becoming a bit slower and more limited. USA was able to partially shut down Rokas, I doubt Serbia will.
Both teams are very similar in one aspect. Plenty of guys can score and contribute. Plenty. That's how both teams are top scoring teams in the tournament. Would I take Latvia, Italy and Slovenia instead of Serbia? Yes. But I wouldn't take USA, Canada, Germany.
In my opinion it's 50/50 game. If you want to win something, you have to take down some big teams. That's how it always worked. Now you're crying too much and want the easiest road all the time. In top 8 there's no easy games. Even Latvia and Italy are very capable to beat anyone in one particular game. They already proved that. And Lithuania is definitely better than those teams.