2023 Lithuanian NT

[Giannis34GOD2]

True. First round is important as next round will be really competitive. Some really good teams are not gonna make it to 4finals. In 2019 it was Greece, Lithuania, Italy, Germany, Canada, Turkey. For Lithuania it's a must to grab all 3 wins and to have solid positions in the second round.

Best possible group for Lithuania:

Lithuania
Venezuela
China
Egypt

I see Venezuela as the weakest team in POT 4, while China in POT 6 and Egypt in POT 8... If that is the case, easy 3-0 for Lithuania


Worst possible group for Lithuania:

Lithuania
Canada
Latvia
SSD

Canada is the best team in POT 4, Latvia in POT 6 and SSD in POT 8 (They are long, athletic and very tough match up for Lithuanians, especially if Gabriel of Lakers and Bol Bol of Magic commits to them) They can still 3-0 in this tough group but worst case scenario they will be out in 1st round, especially if Lithuanians will have a bad luck in their offense, especially against talented Canadians and Latvians (even against Sudanese team)....

 

[Straight forward2]

LTU can get weakest possible opponents in first group but if that group joins group with Pot 1team + Greece/Germany type team pot 3 this is bad draw and so on.

team can sweep first group 3-0,lose 2 close games againts other top 8 teams from way stronger group and bye bye not even get chance to play in playoofs

The results of 1 round will carry over to 2 round. There will be 4 groups with 4 teams in each. So if Lithuania comes in with 3 wins, even losing 2 games in the second round may mean that we are second best team in the group and advance to 4finals. It's very important to grab those points in the first stage. In that perspective we are getting either good, or super good group in the case Canada and Latvia slips.

There was no single successful tournament when we didn't need to take down some-one big before playoffs. I mean in the second round there should be some GOOD teams. It's inevitable.

 

[Straight forward2]

Best possible group for Lithuania:

Lithuania
Venezuela
China
Egypt

I see Venezuela as the weakest team in POT 4, while China in POT 6 and Egypt in POT 8... If that is the case, easy 3-0 for Lithuania


Worst possible group for Lithuania:

Lithuania
Canada
Latvia
SSD

Canada is the best team in POT 4, Latvia in POT 6 and SSD in POT 8 (They are long, athletic and very tough match up for Lithuanians, especially if Gabriel of Lakers and Bol Bol of Magic commits to them) They can still 3-0 in this tough group but worst case scenario they will be out in 1st round, especially if Lithuanians will have a bad luck in their offense, especially against talented Canadians and Latvians (even against Sudanese team)....

Yeah. I agree with everything more or less. Even though the same Georgia (6 pot) is more or less on the same tier with Latvia (I feel Latvia ATM slightly overrated since they have no guards almost literally, no solid decent/solid EL players). Also from 4 pot Montenegro shouldn't be underestimated or even Puerto RIco (less familiar with their current players though).

All in all, I would claim that only Canada is true match for fully packed Lithuania. If they pack their best guards, they can win it on individual talent alone. But I think it's unlikely knowing Canada. They will always have absences. That's their BB school and culture. So Lithuania's advantages are obvious in terms of experience, coherence, team culture. Latvia lacks guards and physicality at the backcourt, and even position 3 is thinner than Lithuania's. In the frontline Latvia has Porzingis, Bertans, Smits. That's very nice modern frontline, one of the best in the tournament, but then again Lithuania has pretty decent frontcourt as well.

In 2019 we were going against fully packed Australia and France to survive in the group stage. Now we have a good starting path and we should utilize this with 3 important wins.

 

[Giannis34GOD2]

Yeah. I agree with everything more or less. Even though the same Georgia (6 pot) is more or less on the same tier with Latvia (I feel Latvia ATM slightly overrated since they have no guards almost literally, no solid decent/solid EL players). Also from 4 pot Montenegro shouldn't be underestimated or even Puerto RIco (less familiar with their current players though).

All in all, I would claim that only Canada is true match for fully packed Lithuania. If they pack their best guards, they can win it on individual talent alone. But I think it's unlikely knowing Canada. They will always have absences. That's their BB school and culture. So Lithuania's advantages are obvious in terms of experience, coherence, team culture. Latvia lacks guards and physicality at the backcourt, and even position 3 is thinner than Lithuania's. In the frontline Latvia has Porzingis, Bertans, Smits. That's very nice modern frontline, one of the best in the tournament, but then again Lithuania has pretty decent frontcourt as well.

In 2019 we were going against fully packed Australia and France to survive in the group stage. Now we have a good starting path and we should utilize this with 3 important wins.

But who among Lithuanian guards can match Murray - SGA duo? plus Brooks, and some role players like Powell, Olynk or Walker (from Twolves)? And i think Canada learned their lesson and they will go away their "American style" of preparation for International competitions, w/ Argentina are out in this summer's event, They are motivated to take that another spot from Americas for direct spot at 2024 Olympics....

 

[Straight forward2]

But who among Lithuanian guards can match Murray - SGA duo? plus Brooks, and some role players like Powell, Olynk or Walker (from Twolves)? And i think Canada learned their lesson and they will go away their "American style" of preparation for International competitions, w/ Argentina are out in this summer's event, They are motivated to take that another spot from Americas for direct spot at 2024 Olympics....

Well, it doesn't work like that with Canada. In 2021 OQ Canada also had Wiggins, Barrert,Alexander- Walker, but more fluid and team orientated Czech Rep. beat Canada. And Czech Rep. is not on Lithuania's level, specially when we speak about 2023 Lithuania which is growing team. I'm not saying Lithuania can surely match fully packed Canada. I'm saying that their holistic unity is less than the sum of their individuals, while Lithuania may be the greatest example in the world (or at least in many tournaments was) of vice versa. If Canada has absolutely packed roster I will treat them favorites, if not then Lithuania. Canada will have the same problems as previously. Their stars never played together basically and they don't even know how Canada NT usually play. They have no identity.

​

 

[Shawshank2]

In 2019 LTU finished 3-2 and lost 2 close games and went home. Sweeping 3-0 doesnt give guarantee of nothing if your group is joining group with 2 other elite teams


This system makes such draws possible. It can even happen 4 teams from top 10 will be in second joined group.



in 2019 one 2nd group looked like Aus/Fra/LTU/Can and other group looked Rus/Arg/Chi/Pol

This system brings too much inbalance and draw plays bigger part than normally


NT can play well top 8 basketball level sweep 3-0 first group but get 2 semifinal teams in 2nd group and is f***ed cant even get to 1/4 playoofs game

Thats why think in this system favourable draw or not is more about 2nd group

 

[Straight forward2]

FOA, who are top 8 teams today? Is current Argentina (or even Lithuania, Slovenia) better than Greece, Italy, Germany, Canada, Turkey? It's really really complex. Latvia stand 29th in FIBA ranking...Croatia 25. Everything is very open in FIBA these days and super competitive.

Another thing, you can't expect that you will get to the 4finals (specially today when FIBA tournaments becoming incredibly equal and unpredictable) without beating a single strong team. So let's assume France, Germany, or say Serbia, Australia ends up in our group in the second round. So what? Beat at least one of these teams. Lithuania eventually has to beat some kind of relevant team for once if we want to succeed something It's not the goal to get to the playoffs in the cheapest way. You have to move some good teams out of your way if you want to be among top 8 teams.

It's getting funny and sad at the same time that the last time we beat a really good team (I claim, elite team) was 2016 when we beat Argentina in the group stage. That team had Manu Ginobili, Scola, Nacioni, Delfino, Campazzo, Laprovittola. It's the last time when we beat a hell of a team.

And since then we can't do it. We lost to Spain, Croatia (basically elite in 2016), Australia, Greece, France, Australia, Slovenia, Slovenia, France, Germany, Spain.

We have to beat a darmn relevant team for once. We can't do it for six years now...

 

[Shawshank2]

for me is simple

7 teams from first 2 pots + Canada,Greece is elite teams that any games with them is 50/50 (best case scenerio)


2 round groups that will get 3 teams from those 9 this is bad ,unlucky draw and one really good team going home early


2 round group that will get 2 teams from top 9 = good draw


In order to make 1/4 game in most champs LTU didnt need to beat semifinal team.

It was enough to beat Chech,Turkey,Brasil level team to make 1/4 game not Aus/Fra/Spain powerhouse just to make 1/4 game


In 1/4 sure elite team should be opponent,but when we get elite powerhouse opponent already in 1/8 stage this is bad draw

 

[Straight forward2]

No it's that simple. For example Germany is more stacked today than Slovenia, Lithuania and they are only in third seed. The thing is that there's no obvious hierarchy in FIBA today. Even super stacked Serbia has been struggling for a long time. What's better - Serbia or Italy? Your idea that someone from "top 8" teams will be obvious victim of the draw is not legitimate. It's not clear who ar top 8 teams. Eurobasket showed it clearly that teams who seemed super powers before the tournament managed to provide plenty of "surprises". I can only remind you that Poland beat Slovenia, Italy beat Serbia and so on. In 2019 USA failed big time. It's much more complex than you put it. The thing is you have to win some shit of you deserve to be in 4 finals. If you go down against all good teams all the time, there's no point to even show up in 4finals. In 2019 we were unlucky not because we got France and Australia in the group, but because we couldn't close the games. If you can't beat a good team in the group stage, you won't do it in the playoffs.

 

[Shawshank2]

By shown level in 2020s basketball Lithuania place is being 1/4 game team in underdogs role.


But in order to achieve that ltu nt need fair draw with Italy,Poland,Croatia type teams in our road not always semifinal powerhouse teams



in 2019,2021,2022 we failed to make single 1/4 game and we didnt lose a single game to obviuosly weaker opponent .All of those defeats were againts objectively at minimum not worse teams in last minute tough fought games


All i want fair chance to make 1/4 game not again death group with semifinal team as opponents in 1/8 stage



Thats middle level teams is stronger now that they ever was i agree.But draws of recent years dont even give us chance to play them !



Its always Doncic,France,Spain,Australia and repeat again next year


Italy,Serbia looks like very good draw compare to those 4 teams

 

[Giannis34GOD2]

Well, it doesn't work like that with Canada. In 2021 OQ Canada also had Wiggins, Barrert,Alexander- Walker, but more fluid and team orientated Czech Rep. beat Canada. And Czech Rep. is not on Lithuania's level, specially when we speak about 2023 Lithuania which is growing team. I'm not saying Lithuania can surely match fully packed Canada. I'm saying that their holistic unity is less than the sum of their individuals, while Lithuania may be the greatest example in the world (or at least in many tournaments was) of vice versa. If Canada has absolutely packed roster I will treat them favorites, if not then Lithuania. Canada will have the same problems as previously. Their stars never played together basically and they don't even know how Canada NT usually play. They have no identity.

​

Well... that is why Canada is building their "CORE 14" Project that will make up of players who will commit for them long term... They learned their lesson after past mistake that they copy American style of involvement of building national team program that it will not work unless if you are team USA that has so many talents to choose.... Let's see...

 

[Giannis34GOD2]

for me is simple

7 teams from first 2 pots + Canada,Greece is elite teams that any games with them is 50/50 (best case scenerio)


2 round groups that will get 3 teams from those 9 this is bad ,unlucky draw and one really good team going home early


2 round group that will get 2 teams from top 9 = good draw


In order to make 1/4 game in most champs LTU didnt need to beat semifinal team.

It was enough to beat Chech,Turkey,Brasil level team to make 1/4 game not Aus/Fra/Spain powerhouse just to make 1/4 game


In 1/4 sure elite team should be opponent,but when we get elite powerhouse opponent already in 1/8 stage this is bad draw

This edition is more tougher than 2019 edition... Dominican Rep w/ KAT (and maybe Horford) , Finland and even Latvia can surprise in a good day.... And many countries who will participate this summer atleast have a NBA player (some of them are having roles for their respective teams) can give a positive impact for their team and give the heavy favorites a big fight.... Don't count them out...

 

[Shawshank2]

Draw for LTU NT is not perfect,but when i see Latvia road i wont cry

Serbia and Italy got open road to 1/4 once again hosts gets ridiculous easy groups is draw rigged or how its repeating?


Serbia,Italy ---> 1/4

Usa---> 1/4
LTU vs Greece game for place in 1/4

Aus,Slo,Germ will fight out for 2 spots --> 1/4

Esp,Bra,Fra,Canada,Latvia for 2 spots --> 1/4


When NT coaches will choose 10-12th players my desicion is strongly biased on matchup versus Greece.

NT dont beat Greece other games dont mean nothing we are not making 1/4 again


We gonna face motivated and rested Giannis after nba playoofs

100% NT must take 3 real centers for that game,he will put our frontcourt in faul trouble

Gudaitis/Dmo one of them must be taken just for that game and like Czechs built 2 center defensive wall,because greeks like lithuania is bad shooting NT


non shooting Jv+Domas vs non shooting Giannis,Calathes fair 50/50 regby type brick festival game

 

[Straight forward2]

Well, to some up, another bad draw for us... FOA, there's USA in the second round and that means our most likely chance is to take second spot in the second round group J. Meaning that we facing I group first team which most likely will be Serbia (or Italy).

So most likely we fighting with Greece for the 4finals ticket and in the 4finals we get Serbia...Tough road to semis (in semis much harder to predict can be anyone from Australia, Slovenia, Germany, Spain, France, Canada).

On other hand, as Eurobasket 2022 showed, and even 2019 WC where USA sucked, surprises always coming. I don't think we shouldn't take USA game seriously. I wouldn't be shocked if USA going down once against either Greece or Lithuania in the group J. Depends what kind of players their bring.

But, again, tough draw...Only first group is pretty easy.

Maybe the positive is that both Greece and Serbia are better than say USA, France or even Spain, Australia if you ask me. I don't fear Slovenia all that much somehow. It's illogical, but I think we'll be better, they will barely...Greece and Serbia are better fit for us as contenders than smaller (more guard orientated) teams.

 

[Toruko2]

It seems you will fight against the Greeks. JV vs Giannis will be interesting if you consider him to block the paint it wont be easy for Giannis. Sloukas cant play for very long times and Calathes defense became trash. Still creating in offense Greece has the upper hand. If your backcourt defends better than in Eurobasket it will be a fierce fight.

 

[Straight forward2]

When you think about 2014 WC, we got freakin' New Zealand in 16finals and Turkey in 4finals (very mediocre at that time). And off course we won both rather comfortably not even having main PG - Kalnietis. Now we gonna face Greece as key game for "16 finals" and likely fighting absolutely stacked Serbia in 4finals. What a good times 2014 it was

As for Greece vs Lithuania I think it's more or less 50:50. I would even claim that knowing potential improvement of Sabonis, Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis (3 of key players) prevails against potential Greek improvements. Actually Calathes, Papanikolou, Sloukas might even decline some, at least possibility knowing their age. Giannis already played to his maximum in EB, I don't think he can play much better than that. Maybe Dorsey can have even better tournament? I would say Lithuania is much more growing team, but still 50:50.

 

[Straight forward2]

The last (very deep) positive is that if Lithuania is very good somehow, there's no best team USA in our way till the finals...Theoretically we have the best chances to reach WC finals ever In 2010 USA stopped us in semis. The same happened in 2014. Now the finals awaits for us

 

[Straight forward2]

USA stopping us in semis 1992, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2014.

Not this time mother fuckers!

 

[Shawshank2]

Lithuania vs Usa game will happen after 9 years break. Good thing its in group not playoofs


LTU road to semifinal

beat Greece in group and beat Serbia in 1/4


Im loading NT lineup in 10-12 bench players for 2023 tournament with physical bigs over small ball players.

 

[Straight forward2]

Lithuania vs Usa game will happen after 9 years break. Good thing its in group not playoofs


LTU road to semifinal

No shit! really? Thanks for new info...

beat Greece in group and beat Serbia in 1/4

​

No shit! really? Thanks for new info...

Im loading NT lineup in 10-12 bench players for 2023 tournament with physical bigs over small ball players.

It's not about centers when it comes to Giannis defence. Czeck Rep provided best effort. Greeks usually play Giannis at 4 and Papagiannis at 5. So PF defends (meets) Giannis at the perimeter, but from each side comes help, be it SF and SG or SF and PG. So Greeks build three men wall and closes the driving paths of Giannis. They give them three pointer if he wants, but you don't allow him to get inside. Giannis shot 20% threes in Eurobasket. The key is to slow down Giannis transition offense (totally unstoppable) and in the set offense to build a wall with constant help defense. So Imagine Sedekerskis or Sabonis guarding Giannis at 4, then Butkevicius and Ulanovas build the three men almost straight wall line of defense. It's very important that help defense would be quality. These three guys surely can do it. That's the key. 1-4 positions are the key to guard Giannis. If he will get deep to the post it's basically over.