[1/8 finals - Day 2] Italy - Israel

[slice me nice2]

Maybe most of the Israelis weren't expecting this performance from their team but here you go. They did pretty well and will face offensive insane team Italy. With clever defense, ball sharing and of course with ''Eliyahu'', they can stay in the game until the last ball.

 

[MaccabiTA2]

Knock-out stage at last, it's been a while.
This game can go in 2 different directions-if we play strong and aggressive defense, avoid too many Italian offensive rebounds and get our fastbreak points it can be a close one. If Italian shooters catch a good day, we're too soft on defense and get stuck in set-offense on too many possessions this will be a painful one with about 15 points difference.
A lot will depend on the Casspi-Galo matchup, I think one of them will get the other in early foul trouble and the winner of this matchup might decide which direction this game is heading. (close on or one sided in Italy's favor)
We've got some good memories from games against Italy in the last few years, we usually had our hand on top, but let's not fool ourselves, they were a different team (and were also much less of a team) and our team was very different as well, full of shooters.
They are the strong favorites in this one, no doubt. We'll come to fight, we have nothing to lose, the moral is high, who knows? if we keep it close until the last few minutes anything can happen.
El El Israel

 

[Levenspiel2]

I think Israel matched up the most beatable team of Group B. They have chances here, barring insane Italian shooting.

which side will maccabeo support now?

 

[MaccabiTA2]

I think Israel matched up the most beatable team of Group B. They have chances here, barring insane Italian shooting.

which side will maccabeo support now?

Italy. They shoot more threes and Israel got his nemesis, Yogev Ohayon.

 

[maccabeo2]

two totally different bball style
+20/25 italy

 

[maccabeo2]

I think Israel matched up the most beatable team of Group B. They have chances here, barring insane Italian shooting.

which side will maccabeo support now?

game of the heart
israel has already done his best. italy could win. so i prefere italy but is not necessary any support. the difference betwen two teams is embarassing

 

[goga782]

game of the heart
israel has already done his best. italy could win. so i prefere italy but is not necessary any support. the difference betwen two teams is embarassing

Aha. Despite averaging 11.8 ppg more, Italy makes 2.4 apg less.
Individual heroics has brought Italy to the next round. They barely won against Island, squeaked past Germany and have beaten Spain in a very good game, however this Spanish team almost went home yesterday. They don't play that well until now. Lost vs. Turkey, demolished by Serbia.

Italy relies on a lot of shooting and a lot of scoring but there is too much forced action, too much one on one. Sometimes a player like Belinelli catches fire, sometimes he has very bad for longer stretches and hurts his team. We know it for many years. Without Gallinary performing at a very high level, the rest is just a bunch of less successful ego shooters.

Of course, Italy has more offensive talent. Israel has to play a more efficient style of basketball and not the Italian harakiri style. Israel is doing well so far. Has won three close games.
What will hurt Israel down the stretch is its short rotation. But, actually, Italy is also giving seven guys major minutes with the rest just waving towels, more or less.

 

[CoachZ2]

Also they are extremely soft on defense and that works well for Israel who like to slash inside. Casspi, Mekel, Fischer are gonna have a field day and potential to get a lot of FT chances.

I think it will be a much closer game then people think.

 

[Joško Poljak Fan2]

Somehow didn't get to watch more than three quarters of Israel this tournament and can't judge as reliably due to it.
I love the observation CoachZ made, that's exactly the case, Italians don't like penetrations. They also don't like being posted up, don't expect Fischer to do it repeatedly, however his presence with rebounding should be noticable on a good day. At the end it all comes down to Italian shooting night imo. It's tough to win against Italy if they get hot from the range.

 

[Israeli_Machine2]

I don't want people to think that I am getting over myself but the Italian national basketball team is definitely "vincible", I was more worried actually of receiving the Turks rather than receiving the Italians.
Israel was able to beat all the Italian big three (Gallinari, Belinelli and Bargnani) in 2011 without Omri Casspi, now I am certainly not saying this could effect anything in this upcoming game but we might be able to take this one.

I haven't seen any significant contribution from Italy's point guard Daniel Hackett in this current tournament, Mekel is a better player than him, and more natural point guard than him, in a match-up between those two, Mekel is the one with the upper-hand, obviously I am not underestimating Hackett.
Belinelli in my opinion is actually the one who could seal the deal in this one, because I believe most of the pressure will be on Gallinari (and rightfully so) it might cause us some problems guarding Belinelli, which could make us suffer from wide open threes, so the way I see it, Limonad who has also been very decent in this tournament should not let Belinelli any space to breath in this one, his mission should be taking Belinelli out of the game, I believe he can do this.

As for Casspi and Gallinari, I certainly hope that we can witness a very productive battle between the two, Gallinari is a better scorer than Casspi but Casspi showed that he is the undisputed leader of Israel in this tournament and he will be there when needed most, he has a tremendous campaign thus far, and he also might have the upper-hand on Gallinari in this battle when it all comes down to the wire, I just hope both will be on point and on their best shape in this one.

I hope Eliyahu will show up to this one and will be able to overcome his minor injury in his ankle, he is a vital piece of this unit, he is very important since he can get into his zone and start scoring "Guavas" which the Italian defense won't have an answer for, and also he has maybe the best basketball vision in the Israeli roster, therefore he can distribute some necessary assists and contribute to the team.

I also would like to see Fischer applying pressure on Bargnani and causing him to take some bad decisions, which he usually takes, it won't be easy because thus far he is having a very decent tournament, but Fischer could draws some quick fouls from him and cause him to not adjust to the game.

As for our bench, I would like to see some exaltation from players like Ohayon (who has been terrific thus far), Kadir who is almost not making any mistake since the campaign began, someone I would really like to see contributing is Dagan Yavzuri, the guy should be a three-point specialist but he hasn't been able to display his abilities in this campaign , he should be ready for Italy, same goes for Dawson, the guy has a great talent, but he is so young and inexperienced, we will have to see him carrying some of the load.

I wish Israel good luck, and I truly believe we can win.

 

[Toxicity2]

Wow... almost all the comments pro Israel but i see 22 votes (out of 25 for 88%) for Italy in the matchup...

I think it will be a close game, Israel has the weapons to let Italy struggle a lot but i also think if we play less 1vs1 and share more the ball we have too much talent not to win this one..

 

[Mindozas6]

Israel surprised a bit, as much as it can be surprising to be 2nd in such group, but I think their story will be over now. Maybe Italy isn't the most consistant team in Eurobasket, but I think they'll win it on talent and quality alone. It won't be an easy game, but Italy by 8-10 is my call

 

[CoachZ2]

Well people think Italy will win, but just don't see it as 15, 20 point win like some are saying. I think it will be a competitive game. Italy has not been able to put ANYONE away in this Eurobasket, no matter how weak the opponent is. That is a characteristic of teams that are primed for upset often. It just means that you do not have control of the game. It can be due to talent, bad coaching, egos, no hustle and toughness etc, no clutch players. I think Italy has all the talent in the world but combination of Egos, coaching and lack of toughness basically prevents them from playing complete games. They haven't played a single one this tournament so far.

That's why Israel has a chance, if they can hang around they have a solid chance. They excel at attacking and slashing and that is at the heart of weak Italian defense. The issue will be the tempo, which Israelis are also fond of. They have to slow it down, since it only plays into Italian hands if you run at them. They want more and more possessions to get into shooting rhythm and make up for deficiencies on defense or having a cold shooting start etc.

Caspi/Galinari duo is actually something that is easily manageable for Caspi if he plays it smart. Gallinari will get his point (like he did vs Serbia) whoever guards him, the key is not to overcommit and get into foul trouble. Just play solid and tough as good as you can and force him to come at you. He is not a superman, he gets tired and will make mistakes and have to be subbed. On the other hand he defends as an idiot. He has all the athleticism but has only 2 modes: super soft when he will let you score afraid to commit fouls or get chop-lumberjacky and start collecting foul. So Caspi and Mekel just slash inside and get him and Bargnani in foul trouble, attack offensive board (Italy sucks at rebounding) and go for second chance. If you succeed you will get a heavy dose of Gentile and EVERYONE wants that Trust me!

 

[Joško Poljak Fan2]

Israeli Machine; well if Hackett won't pass the ball, probably noone will just kidding, he isn't playing terrible, he does his part, however he won't assume some leading offensive role in this team that's for sure.

I think on the C you'll have the classical attempt to lure Fisher out and on the other side of the court to get Bargnani into foul troubles fast. Cusin isn't exactly a naive or weak player, but easier to control compared to Bargnani. Even if ElMago can make some stupid stuff in the offense (not the case as much this eurobasket than 2011 iirc) you still don't want him there unless you've got a player that can post him up regulary one offense after another to exploit that. If you don't have that kind of a player one of his biggest weaknesses as well as Italian one, gets left undisturbed. As far as my memory goes Fischer was always the physical type of guy, not someone that will perform classical finesse post up plays.

 

[slice me nice2]

The biggest chance of Israel is the role description based problems of Italy. Italy is much more talented without a single doubt. There are many scorers who can beat any of the opponents on his own in his good day. Italy has many score option but if basketball would be about just scoring, they would decorate a medal in every tournament. Their problem is within the team chemistry and role based. Okay, they have great talents however who will do all those dirty jobs and hustles when it matters. Everybody is hanging around like ''No no, I can't put a wrong foot never ever'' on the floor. That's a terrible thing for team system. Since they are scoring insanely, people haven't mentioned this properly. There is no 6th man in team. At least there is nobody who can admit he is 6th man. Aradori has tried to tackle this role, but let's be honest, he ain't got that quality to carry this position. If you would make a survey between Italian guys and would ask who is the leader of team, most probably you will get more than 3 different answers. In last two games, they described the roles better than they had done in first games and this directly affected their games in positive manner. Now, Belinelli takes the responsibility in crucial times and everybody feels relaxed instead of being hurry about who will shoot when the ball is on fire. Cusin is not the talented guy of this team but in my eyes, he has more value than any of the Italians. When he is out, Italian frontcourt comes short defensively. He is the only guy who can cope with physical guys. Most probably, we will see him a lot against Israel because Fischer can easily rule Italians out if they don't take the necessary precautions. I am quite surprised, Hackett just pushed his ego into the background and feeds his teammates effectively. Maybe he hasn't been a created guy during this journey but makes the simple passes instead of taking hard shots. If Italy would have few defensive minded forwards whose job is trying hard until the fatigue of his opponent, they would appear as a more dangerous team.

On the opposite side, Israel's system is quite clear. Every player knows what to do and there is no trouble within team system regarding role descriptions. Casspi rules, Casspi decides and Casspi performs in crucial moments. Offensively, there are other Israeli talents who almost take same amount of shots in every game when Italian players' number of shots has been changing day to say. I expect quite close game. Israeli defense should do their maximum to reach the QF, that's the key.

 

[CoachZ2]

Also if Bellinelli uses the same decision making in his shot selection, as he does in tattoo artists then Israel can upset them

 

[ran2222]

Italy are the clear favorite.

Casspi_gallinari match up will be interesting.

Key points for israel to win:

Keep penetrating
Rebound.
Mekel/limonad/ohayon defence on belinelli and hacket. I think thay can limit them.

But i see it as 70-30% in italy favore

 

[maccabeo2]

Aha. Despite averaging 11.8 ppg more, Italy makes 2.4 apg less.
Individual heroics has brought Italy to the next round. They barely won against Island, squeaked past Germany and have beaten Spain in a very good game, however this Spanish team almost went home yesterday. They don't play that well until now. Lost vs. Turkey, demolished by Serbia.

Italy relies on a lot of shooting and a lot of scoring but there is too much forced action, too much one on one. Sometimes a player like Belinelli catches fire, sometimes he has very bad for longer stretches and hurts his team. We know it for many years. Without Gallinary performing at a very high level, the rest is just a bunch of less successful ego shooters.

Of course, Italy has more offensive talent. Israel has to play a more efficient style of basketball and not the Italian harakiri style. Israel is doing well so far. Has won three close games.
What will hurt Israel down the stretch is its short rotation. But, actually, Italy is also giving seven guys major minutes with the rest just waving towels, more or less.

italy offensive power is dramatically higher than israeli. offensively the difference is 30-40 points. il defens will reduce impact but no defense could have chances if not supported by strong offensive scorer and shooters. ita+20
just +10 would be a success for il

 

[Milos.Djuric2]

italy offensive power is dramatically higher than israeli. offensively the difference is 30-40 points. il defens will reduce impact but no defense could have chances if not supported by strong offensive scorer and shooters. ita+20
just +10 would be a success for il

I agree Italy is offensively stronger, but better defense => almost always wins the game. But I don't think Israel's defense is that much better than Italy's, but that is where Israel's chance is.

 

[goga782]

italy offensive power is dramatically higher than israeli. offensively the difference is 30-40 points. il defens will reduce impact but no defense could have chances if not supported by strong offensive scorer and shooters. ita+20
just +10 would be a success for il

Italy is averaging 11.8 ppg more. Why should then the difference be 30-40 points?! ))
You are great in inventing things. You cannot just take any single Italian player and say that he can score 20 points in the game. There is just one ball and 40 minutes to play in a regular game. Not enough shots for everybody to score this amount of points.

BTW, statistically, Israel concedes 74.5 ppg, while Italy gives up 86.8 ppg. That's a difference of 12.3 ppg. More than Italy is gaining on offense. And we have to consider that Israel has basically tanked one game. What's also interesting, Italy has scored exactly the same number of points they have conceded.
Stats can bring you so far

As it was mentioned, so far, Italy was unable to put anyone away. They've had opponents with different styles. Slow basketball, fast basketball, tall centers, shooters... a great offensive display but not more. Being #16 in rebounding in this championship, despite having tall, mobile and athletic guys on the roster, while taking a ton of shots, is absolutely not good.

Still, Italy is the favourite. Maybe, simple for the reason that Israel is not a tough as nails group on defense as it used to be before and rather has smooth scorers. Also, Israel is shooting much less from the outside than it used to do before. It does so very effectively (40%) but not enough in numbers to spread the floor well.

But... the beauty of basketball is that the game is over, when the final whistle has sounded.

By the way, a -10 is not a success in knock-out stage. It means that you are out. Either you win (success) or you lose (no success). It's not like Israel is playing Team USA and is sure to be out, while the margin counts for self-respect.