When it comes to predicting the outcomes of games, basketball has traditionally been regarded as one of the most predictable sports to bet on. NBA odds in particular are considered to be more consistent than soccer or hockey. The high seeded teams dominate and surprises don’t occur frequently. Said another way, the teams that are supposed to win, win more often in basketball than in other sports.

All that said, who doesn’t like an underdog story every now and then? This makes it even more remarkable when a huge upset takes place in the NBA. 

According to the gambling portal MrCasinova.com, an NBA upset is determined by its betting odds which goes according to its point spread. The point spread is the margin of victory a team is expected to cover. For example, if team A has a -10.5 point spread over team B, it would have to win by 11 points or more for the bet to win. Got it? With that sportsbook 101 in mind, we present to you the most-unlikely NBA upsets over the last 15 years according to the odds and point spreads.

Bucks 116 vs. Nets 119 (-5000 money line) 

Going into the game on August 6th, 2020 against the Brooklyn Nets, the Milwaukee Bucks had odds of -5000 moneyline to win over the Nets and were given an 18.5 point spread to cover. The Nets had a moneyline as high as +4900 to win. To put things in perspective, with a $10 bet on Bucks to win you would get $0.20 profit. A $10 bet on Bucks to win, you would get a $490 profit. 

Led by Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, the Brooklyn Nets won straight up 119-116, in 48 minutes, making it the biggest NBA point-spread upset in nearly three decades. The Brooklyn Nets were playing without Kevin Durant, James Harden ir Kyrie Irving that game while Milwaukee had Giannis and Khris Middleton. The Nets played a line up with virtually unknown players but still ended up winning the game. Only one player in their lineup, Garrett Temple, had averaged over 7 points per game in the season. Take a look at NBA.com to see the full box score for that game. 

Bucks 106 –  Pistons 115  (=2000)

The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves on the wrong side of history twice. The two biggest NBA point spread upsets in recent history, and the Bucks are at the losing end of both of them. With a 17 point spread to cover, the Bucks had a -2000 moneyline odds to win against the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons on the other hand had as high as +1983 odds moneyline on winning. A $10 on the Bucks to win would have given you $0.50 profit. Same bet on the Pistons to win, $198.30 profit. Still the Pistons won 115-106 on Jan 3rd, 20202. Full coverage of this upset can be found on ESPN. 

Warrios 95 – Lakers 112 (-5000) 

During the 2015-2016 NBA season, any team defeating the Warriors was considered an upset. Yet, what the Lakers pulled through with a 112-95 win is the biggest upset in the NBA regular season according to the sports book odds. According to the Washington Post, “A team with a winning percentage as poor as that of the Lakers had never before defeated a team with winning percentage as high as that of Golden State”. 

The Lakers had odds as high as +1889 moneyline to win, against the Warriors’ -5000. A $10 bet on Lakers to win would have pocketed you $188.90 profit. The same bet on the Warriors to win would have brought you a mere $0.20 in profit.  The Lakers started with a +17 point spread cover and they just about turned that the other way around. 

Celtics 111 –  Cavaliers 108 (-3333)

In their first game without their star player, Isaiah Thomas, the Boston Celtics beat the Cavaliers 111-108. That is despite them being the underdogs by 16 points. The Celtics had +1476 odds to win, against the Cavaliers at -3333. So a $10 on Celtics to win would have yielded $147.60 in profit. The same amount on a bet for a Cavaliers’ win and your profit would have been only $0.30. But as it turned out, there was no profit to be made backing the Cavaliers in that match.

Warriors 118 –  Jazz 108 (-3333)

The Golden State Warriors were big underdogs against Utah Jazz in the 2008 NBA regular season, having been given a 16 point spread lead from the start. The money line odds for a Warriors win were as high as +1310 compared to Utah’s -3333. A $10 bet on a Warriors win would’ve pocketed you $131 in profit. The same bet for the Utah Jazz to win would have brought you $0.30 profit. The Warriors pulled off one of the NBA’s biggest upsets. Led by CJ Watson’s career high of 38 points and Rob Kurz’s (who?!) 21 points, the Warriors didn’t just barely win, instead, they won by a 10 point margin that game, 118-108.

According to the NY Post, there were two bigger upsets in NBA history than those that are listed above. Orlando Magic won in 1992 despite a 21 point spread for the Bulls. Then the Dallas Mavericks won against the Seattle Supersonics in 1993 to cover a 19.5 point spread. However, there are no betting lines available. The most unlikely NBA upsets according to the odds are certainly not common, but they are the most rewarding for those bettors who can predict them.