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Thread: EuroBasket prediction 2017

  1. #141
    Senior Member CoachZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terrorizer View Post
    Long time I haven't posted anything. Well, I guess it was out of disappointment to what kind of shabby circus Jordileague had disintergated into

    Unlike CoachZ, I think it's the rosters depth and not the presence of one or two mega-superstars around whom the national team should be built which is a decisive factor here. And, as witnessed by Lith's recent successful streak, team spirit and chemistry between players are also especially important. It can sound weird but I guess that the quality of your 5th backcourt offensive option gives a much closer approximation to the team's overall power than the individual offensive firepower of your go-to guy.

    So, all in all, I think that there are three teams which stand out (especially judging by the strength of their rosters) and chances are high that they will occupy the podium: Spain (still a favourite of sorts), Serbia and France.

    After that, there is a big pool of teams with maybe Greece somewhat upfront due to having a lot of useful players who are still not old yet already have scores of experience on the highest international level (Papanikolaou, Sloukas, Mantzaris) who can mix quite nicely with their older guys and their promising youngsters. They only have to have enough guts not to turn the team into a 'Greek Freak + some other role players enabling him to attain beastly stats' mode - that's a perfect recipe for disaster in FIBA basketball. The last time it worked was with Nowitzki back in early 2000s and the level of competition's toughness (especially with regards to the disparity between favourites and outsiders) was definitely lower back then. I won't rate them so far as it's better to grasp which kind of rosters will they attain and how the things will be run at federation level. For example, nobody mentions Russia as a possible positive surprise of this tournament but the way federation handled affairs after 2012 was just atrocious and it was a huge factor why a team which was legitimately ranked as third worldwide only some 5 years ago failed so horribly. I don't believe that under Kirilenko main problems will be fixed (and there's no indication of this so far), but maybe with proper preparation process outcome won't be as humiliating for our team as it was during last two EuroBaskets.
    I agree with most of the things you have said. How come you think I am for the star power? I have never stated that, neither when talking about club teams either. This is BTW the deepest Serbia team in recent memory. Just take a look at this possible national player pool:

    PG Teodosic, Markovic, Jovic (Markovic would show up for Djordjevic)
    SG Bogdanovic, Nedovic, Guduric, Milosavljevic
    SF Kalinic, Simonovic, Zagorac, Dangubic
    PF Bjelica, Macvan, Lucic, Jelovac, Bircevic, Mitrovic
    C Jokic, Marjanovic, Raduljica, Kuzmic, Milutinov, Stimac, Musli

    That is tremendous depth, I can't remember that we were so stacked since the late 90s.

    Also, go back some pages I actually wrote in depth about the Russian being one of the dark horses and a great chance to have a decent Eurobasket.
    Gangbanga from Palanga!


  2. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachZ View Post
    I agree with most of the things you have said. How come you think I am for the star power? I have never stated that, neither when talking about club teams either.
    Well, in this topic I've got such an impression out of this.
    [QUOTE]
    That is true. The problem is that coaching egos of Europe are way too big and they will try to make a system and then make Giannis a part of it... I think that Greeks need to go for a team with defensive upside and surround Giannis with length and athleticism/transition.
    [\QUOTE]
    The whole idea that you can build a great team by surrounding an exceptionally gifted offensive player with some purely defense-oriented "length and athleticism" is not really sympathetic to me. Sometimes you can get the results you strive for but mostly, especially in the international basketball, it doesn't pay off. As a coach you are obliged to choose the playing style with a pretty serious consideration of what kind of players you have in your squad and how you can use their strengths in an optimal way (and find a good playing strategy to 'minimize' their disadvantages also)... and, to be frank, I prefer a team which plays offense where you don't know who will net some 20 points on any given evening, where you have a great multitude of offensive combinations focused on different players (micro-managed or not ), where rotation is really deep with no one playing more than some 26-27 minutes per game, as opposed to molding the whole team in a way that it can fit its main superstar the best.

    Quote Originally Posted by CoachZ View Post
    This is BTW the deepest Serbia team in recent memory.
    That depends on what we view as 'recent' I don't think that in some 2010 Serbian roster was really thin either. And you had a really young team back then. But this Serbia has a lot of depth with a possible exception of SF position, no doubt about it. And that's exactly one of the main reasons why I view them as one of this forthcoming Eurobasket's most powerful teams.

    Quote Originally Posted by CoachZ View Post
    Just take a look at this possible national player pool:

    PG Teodosic, Markovic, Jovic (Markovic would show up for Djordjevic)
    SG Bogdanovic, Nedovic, Guduric, Milosavljevic
    SF Kalinic, Simonovic, Zagorac, Dangubic
    PF Bjelica, Macvan, Lucic, Jelovac, Bircevic, Mitrovic
    C Jokic, Marjanovic, Raduljica, Kuzmic, Milutinov, Stimac, Musli

    That is tremendous depth, I can't remember that we were so stacked since the late 90s.
    Potential Serbian rosters of the early- to mid- 2000s were deeper, if my memory serves me right. For example, there were more Serbs playing for elite European clubs back then and many (though not always the most talented) were in NBA also.

    Also I hoped that it would take less time for all the Crvena Zvezda promising young talents to fully blossom but so far their dynamics is not that exciting as it promised to be. The fact that even guys like Mitrovic and Jovic are still unable to prove that they really outgrew Zvezda's level is telling. I mean, I like a way in which this Zvezda roster is assembled and I generally like the way they play but let's get real: if Jovic established an impressive and stable shooting range from the deep and if he was overall a more sharp and finesse offensive option by himself, he would already play for some Baskonia. And if Mitrovic scored some 12 and not 4 ppg in Euroleague season, then he also would be picked up by some Spanish/Greek/Turkish/Russian powerhouse. So far that didn't happen.

    I liked your roster very much nevertheless and the fact that as your fourth SG option you have someone like Dragan Miloslavljevic, who is quality player through and through (well, right now I would put him even higher than Guduric because while Alba mostly struggled this season, Dragan was one of the few players who we definitely should not blame for that), is maybe the most important indication of why some Latvia (who is their fourth SG?) can't hold a candle to this Serbian team despite all the buzz about beastly Porzingis and the potential number of Latvians in NBA.

    Quote Originally Posted by CoachZ View Post
    Also, go back some pages I actually wrote in depth about the Russian being one of the dark horses and a great chance to have a decent Eurobasket.
    I haven't found it, maybe, I was inattentive or it was another topic. Most people here though put Russia way below all the Latvias and Georgias, I only remember JPF assessing our potential in a more positive manner. I mean, that's not totally outrageous because you can never predict with Russian NT, especially these days. I won't be surprised at the slightest if we'll fail abysmally (like in some 2015 or 2013) but, nevertheless, I think that this team has some non-negligible quality in its ranks. Most of the key players come off from the disappointing seasons though, so that has to be taken into account.
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  3. #143
    Senior Member CoachZ's Avatar
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    Regarding Giannis comments, that was made since Greece is not talented outside of him and Printezis, maybe Sloukas. So it makes sense that when you don't have a lot of offensive firepower to base your game on a more grind it out approach and make and athletic and tough team and then have few players be go to scorers since the gap to the rest of the team is quite large.

    Regarding Serbia roster, I have to disagree. This is 2010 squad:

    4 G Miloš Teodosić March 19, 1987 (age 23)
    5 G Milenko Tepić February 7, 1987 (age 23)
    6 G Aleksandar Rašić March 16, 1984 (age 26)
    7 G Ivan Paunić January 27, 1987 (age 23)
    8 F Nemanja Bjelica May 9, 1988 (age 22)
    9 G Stefan Marković April 25, 1988 (age 22)
    10 F Duško Savanović September 5, 1983 (age 26)
    11 F Marko Kešelj January 2, 1988 (age 22)
    12 C Nenad Krstić July 25, 1983 (age 27)
    13 C Kosta Perović February 19, 1985 (age 25)
    14 F Novica Veličković October 5, 1986 (age 23)
    15 F Milan Mačvan November 16, 1989 (age 20)

    Extremely young and most of the players were kids that were nowhere near what they became later. Players that were at their peak were Krstic, Savanovic and an early peak from Velickovic and Keselj. Both practically disappeared later. We had no guards outside Markovic and Teodosic. Bjelica didn't even play in Laboral, Perovic LOL. Forward position was young and athletic but very little knowledge outside of Savanovic. Center line outside Krstic

    The last deep roster we had was 2002 WC I think. Take a look at this.

    G Jaric, Vujanic, Stojakovic, Rakocevic (both Stojakovic and Bodiroga played as both Guards and Forwards)
    F Bodiroga, Gurovic Radmanovic, Cabarkapa
    C Divac, Koturovic, Tomasevic, Drobnjak

    Basically since then we had some stars and such but never so much depth.

    Regarding Zvezda's talent development, the issue is mostly with injuries. Jovic has been plagued by injuries for several years. You haven't followed EL as you said, Zvezda basically collapsed when he got injured. He has discus hernia and chronic back problems and they are limiting him a lot. As soon as he breaks out, after 30+ games he starts to suffer. Mitrovic is not the same player he was due to injuries. I don't know if you have followed but he has torn his ACL 2 years ago and then after that he has dislocated the other knee as well last year and was out. He is not as athletic as he used to be, and now he is not able to play that way. He is not a shooter and he suffers on court. He put up 10ppg per game few years back, now he is far from that. Dangubic had a broken leg and an arm in the last 2 years as well. So a lot of unlucky freak injuries. Guduric on the other hand is doing very well and developing. He had a good year and some big games across the schedule. He will probably be the gem of that generation.
    Gangbanga from Palanga!


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