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Thread: Healthy 3PFGA/FGA ratio?

  1. #1
    EL Week 3 MVP Billy Bounce's Avatar
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    Question Healthy 3PFGA/FGA ratio?

    There are a lot of EL teams that shoot threes like there no tomorrow: Prokom, Caja Laboral, Zagreb have 3PFGA/FGA ~0.4 ratio.

    Usually those teams are punished by being unable to produce enough points in bad shooting day, but they are also capable of beating better teams in "one of those days" when every second shot goes in.

    The 2012 league average is 0.33 (every third shot attempt is a three pointer), last year it was 0.32.

    What do you think is a healthy 3PFGA/FGA ratio?

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    Senior Member pohani komarac's Avatar
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    wich teams have lowest ratio?
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    EL Week 3 MVP Billy Bounce's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pohani komarac View Post
    which teams have lowest ratio?
    The four last are Fenerbahce = 0.29, Unicaja = 0.28, Maccabi = 0.25, Nancy = 0.24

    Both Maccabi & Fener had nearly the same ratios last year too ( the same coaches too). On the other hand Unicaja dropped from 0.37 (last year ) to 0.28 (this one)

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    Senior Member NorCal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Bounce View Post
    The four last are Fenerbahce = 0.29, Unicaja = 0.28, Maccabi = 0.25, Nancy = 0.24

    Both Maccabi & Fener had nearly the same ratios last year too ( the same coaches too). On the other hand Unicaja dropped from 0.37 (last year ) to 0.28 (this one)
    Hey Billy, interesting stuff. You wouldn't happen to have any data for NBA teams on this topic would you? Or would you know where to find it?

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    EL Week 3 MVP Billy Bounce's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorCal View Post
    Hey Billy, interesting stuff. You wouldn't happen to have any data for NBA teams on this topic would you? Or would you know where to find it?
    http://www.draftexpress.com/teamstat...er=game&sort=9

    Just keep in mind then NBA 3pts-line is further then EL, so naturally you guys shoot less threes

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    Senior Member NorCal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Bounce View Post
    http://www.draftexpress.com/teamstat...er=game&sort=9

    Just keep in mind then NBA 3pts-line is further then EL, so naturally you guys shoot less threes
    Thanks for the link. Yeah, I figured the ratio would be smaller for NBA teams, I just wanted to eyeball it to see whether there were any correlations between this stat and win-loss record this year.

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    EL Week 3 MVP Billy Bounce's Avatar
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    LOL, I've developed a theory to get the best 3PA/FGA ratio.

    There are a lot of generalizations & over-simplifications , so don't kill the messenger

    The basic assumption that there is 10 player rotation : 2 players for each position .
    The second assumption that frontcourt players( PF/C) aren't good shooters & take neglectable (compared to SF/SG/PG) number of team attempts for threes . The third assumption that the team is balanced - each position takes nearly the same number of shot attempts: 20% for PG , 20% for SG & so on.

    So we've got 60% (6) shooting players, 40% (4) non-shooting players. Every shooting player has 2 options : 2PA or 3PA . To maximize his efficiency & to make his shot maximal unpredictable for his defender , shooting player should have 3PA/FGA close to 0.5 . Being well above 0.5 makes him "one trick pony", being well below allows his defender to step back defending him.

    Now applying the above stated principles, we've got half (0.5) of 60% (shooting players attempts) are threes. it gives 0.5*0.6=0.3 ratio.

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    EL Week 3 MVP Billy Bounce's Avatar
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    Theory reality check for Barcelona ( was picked because they play with more or less the same roster each game , contrary to MTA, Pao, Oly, Siena, CSKA)

    The threshold of being a shooter : 15 three points attempts
    HUERTAS, MARCELINHO - shooter
    SADA, VICTOR - shooter
    INGLES, JOE - shooter
    NAVARRO, JUAN CARLOS - shooter
    RABASEDA, XAVIER - shooter
    EIDSON, CHUCK - shooter
    MICKEAL, PETE - shooter
    LORBEK, ERAZEM - shooter
    WALLACE, C.J. - shooter
    NDONG, BONIFACE - nope
    PEROVIC, KOSTA - nope
    VAZQUEZ, FRAN - nope

    So it's 9 (9/12=0.75) shooting players & 3 (3/12=0.25) non-shooting.

    Healthy 3PA/FGA = 0.75*0.5=0.375 ( Barca has 0.33 3PA/FGA this season)

    Here is the list of Barca roster with their personal 3PA/FGA ( >0.5 should take less threes, <0.5 should take more )

    WALLACE, C.J. 0.58
    RABASEDA, XAVIER 0.58
    NAVARRO, JUAN CARLOS 0.57
    HUERTAS, MARCELINHO 0.46
    INGLES, JOE 0.43
    EIDSON, CHUCK 0.43
    SADA, VICTOR 0.37
    LORBEK, ERAZEM 0.3
    MICKEAL, PETE 0.18
    VAZQUEZ, FRAN 0.04
    PEROVIC, KOSTA 0
    NDONG, BONIFACE 0

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    Senior Member radallo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Bounce View Post
    Just keep in mind then NBA 3pts-line is further then EL, so naturally you guys shoot less threes
    moreover NBA has more open court /fast break plays.. so I expect a lower ratio.

    An interesting stat IMO for NBA should be about CornerThrees/FrontThrees ratio, since the court is wider and 3pt line is closer from the corner

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    Senior Member NorCal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by radallo View Post
    moreover NBA has more open court /fast break plays.. so I expect a lower ratio.

    An interesting stat IMO for NBA should be about CornerThrees/FrontThrees ratio, since the court is wider and 3pt line is closer from the corner
    I don't know if you've read much about coaching theories in the NBA but if not that is a very astute observation. From what I've read, a number of the best teams, especially the Spurs have scouted and sought out players who can shoot the corner 3- Bruce Bowen, Richard Jefferson, Stephen Jackson. That spot has been linked to the more offensively efficient NBA teams because it is the shortest 3 pt shot and by placing players there (after running your offensive set) it naturally widens the court for your penetrators or your bigs.

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    Senior Member radallo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorCal View Post
    I don't know if you've read much about coaching theories in the NBA but if not that is a very astute observation.
    Thanks.. Never read anything about that. Do you knw if there's a stat about that ratio?

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    Senior Member NorCal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by radallo View Post
    Thanks.. Never read anything about that. Do you knw if there's a stat about that ratio?
    I don't remember seeing any stats on it, I read it on some ESPN truehoop blog over a year ago. I just remember them stating that most of the offensively efficient teams in the NBA tend to shoot more from that spot than other, less efficient teams.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NorCal View Post
    I don't remember seeing any stats on it, I read it on some ESPN truehoop blog over a year ago. I just remember them stating that most of the offensively efficient teams in the NBA tend to shoot more from that spot than other, less efficient teams.
    i agree with you!

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